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Every Decision Is A Forecast

In today’s environment of unpredictability, organizational success hinges on the quality of decisions. Yet most leaders are never trained to think in terms of likelihood, uncertainty, and evolving information.

The real challenge isn’t decision-making, it’s judgment: the ability to think clearly when the future is unclear, challenge assumptions, and continuously update thinking as new information emerges.

That’s why The Kingbridge Centre has partnered with Good Judgment Inc. to bring Every Decision Is a Forecast to leadership teams, a hands-on program grounded in Superforecasting, a discipline proven to outperform traditional analysis and intelligence forecasting.

To Learn More

Watch our 6-part video series featuring conversations with Superforecasters, exploring how leaders can improve judgment and decision-making in uncertain environments.

Every Decision Is A Forecast

A practical, research-backed program from Good Judgment Inc and The Kingbridge Centre that helps leaders make clearer, faster, better decisions when the stakes are high.

Co-founded by Professor Philip E. Tetlock, Good Judgment Inc is the official home of Superforecasting®. Methods were validated in a four-year US government research tournament. Trusted by Fortune 500 firms, governments, and universities.

Schedule a consultation call
Download the Program flyer
Jump to Course information

What Is the Cost of a Bad Decision?

When leaders misjudge the future, the costs can be staggering. History is replete with examples, from economists’ failure to foresee the stock market crash of 1929 to JFK’s Bay of Pigs invasion to industry giants dismissing the iPhone as a fad. Decisions made without foresight lead to strategic blind spots, wasted resources, and eroded credibility. This program gives your team a disciplined way to see around the corners and the confidence to act on better signals.

It looks like by April, you know in theory, when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away.
US President Donald Trump, on the coronavirus, 2020
Peace for our time.
UK Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, returning from Munich, 1938
While theoretically and technically television may be feasible, yet commercially and financially I consider it an impossibility, a development of which we need waste little time in dreaming.
Dr. Lee de Forest, Radio Technology Pioneer, 1926
Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.
Irving Fisher, Yale Economist, weeks before the stock market crash, 1929

In the early 1980s, AT&T turned to McKinsey & Company to forecast the future of the mobile phone market. McKinsey predicted a modest 900,000 US subscribers by the year 2000.

The reality? Over 109 million Americans were using mobile phones by 2000, a colossal misjudgment that illustrates the difficulty of forecasting disruptive technologies. AT&T, relying on this flawed analysis, delayed its entry into mobile, ultimately spending $12.6 billion to acquire McCaw Cellular just to stay competitive.

The Forecast
McKinsey projected mobile phones would remain a niche market with only 900,000 subscribers by 2000.

The Reality
By 2000, mobile phone users in the US exceeded 109 million.

The Consequences
AT&T, slow to invest, lost its early-mover advantage and had to buy its way back into the market.

In today’s climate of unpredictability, is your organization equipped to make better decisions?

What Is the Cost of a Bad Decision?

When leaders misjudge the future, the costs can be staggering. History is replete with examples, from economists’ failure to foresee the stock market crash of 1929 to JFK’s Bay of Pigs invasion to industry giants dismissing the iPhone as a fad. Decisions made without foresight lead to strategic blind spots, wasted resources, and eroded credibility. This program gives your team a disciplined way to see around the corners and the confidence to act on better signals.

It looks like by April, you know in theory, when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away.
 
US President Donald Trump, on the coronavirus, 2020
Peace for our time.

UK Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, returning from Munich, 1938
While theoretically and technically television may be feasible, yet commercially and financially I consider it an impossibility, a development of which we need waste little time in dreaming.

Dr. Lee de Forest, Radio Technology Pioneer, 1926
Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.


Irving Fisher, Yale Economist, weeks before the stock market crash, 1929

In the early 1980s, AT&T turned to McKinsey & Company to forecast the future of the mobile phone market. McKinsey predicted a modest 900,000 US subscribers by the year 2000.

The reality? Over 109 million Americans were using mobile phones by 2000, a colossal misjudgment that illustrates the difficulty of forecasting disruptive technologies. AT&T, relying on this flawed analysis, delayed its entry into mobile, ultimately spending $12.6 billion to acquire McCaw Cellular just to stay competitive.

The Forecast
McKinsey projected mobile phones would remain a niche market with only 900,000 subscribers by 2000.

The Reality
By 2000, mobile phone users in the US exceeded 109 million.

The Consequences
AT&T, slow to invest, lost its early-mover advantage and had to buy its way back into the market.

In today’s climate of unpredictability, is your organization equipped to make better decisions?

What This Program Offers

Overview

A transformative leadership development experience from The Kingbridge Centre in partnership with Good Judgment Inc.

The Good Judgment Process

Grounded in decades of research and real-world application, this methodology focuses on:

• Quantifying Uncertainty: Using statistical and behavioral science to assign probabilities to future outcomes
• Training Forecasting Skills: Developing the ability to reduce bias, filter noise, and improve accuracy over time
• Making Better Decisions, Faster: Combining forecasting with existing tools like scenario planning and cost-benefit analysis

Key Skills Leaders Will Develop

• Decision-making under uncertainty
• Cognitive debiasing
• Effective team decision-making
• Harnessing collective intelligence
• Forecasting and scenario integration
• Asking better questions and updating beliefs
• Leveraging internal expertise
• Constructive disagreement and adversarial collaboration

Delivery Format

A high-impact, experiential learning program where leaders engage in real-time forecasting exercises, apply proven frameworks to live organizational challenges, and continuously test, refine, and update their thinking in response to new insights and evolving conditions.

Ideal for teams who want to:

• Align on strategy
• Improve decision quality
• Solve real challenges collaboratively

Who Should Attend

Designed for executives navigating complex, high-stakes decisions:
• Board members and governance leaders
• C-suite executives
• Senior and cross-functional leadership teams

A Clear Competitive Advantage

Participants who completed the program demonstrated:

• 16%–58% improvement in forecasting accuracy
• 20%–47% greater accuracy than untrained peers
•Continued improvement over time, reaching up to 59% gains

Insight: Organizations that consistently make better predictions gain a compounding strategic advantage.

Engagement Pathways

Residential Leadership Immersion

A 2-day, 2-night, residential experience designed for intact teams, (minimum 10 participants) this fully immersive leadership experience is delivered alongside Good Judgment Superforecasters, enabling executive teams to build advanced judgment capabilities while working through a real strategic challenge in a focused, distraction-free environment.

One-Day Leadership Workshop

Designed for intact teams (minimum 10 participants), this high-impact, applied workshop builds core judgment and probabilistic thinking skills, while enabling teams to strengthen alignment and make meaningful progress on real business challenges in a single day.

Open Enrollment

A curated cohort-based experience for individual leaders and cross-organizational participants to develop forecasting and decision-making skills, while gaining diverse perspectives and benchmarking against peers

Enterprise Engagement

Ideal for organizations looking to embed judgment capability across the enterprise through a series of tailored experiences, building a shared language, strengthening decision quality, and driving sustained impact over time.

Good Judgment INC

Who are Superforecasters® ?

Superforecasters are individuals whose predictive accuracy places them in the top 1–2% globally.

• Drawn from diverse fields including finance, intelligence, medicine, and academia
• Proven to outperform intelligence analysts by ~30% in government research trials
• Use disciplined, repeatable processes to consistently produce more accurate forecasts

The Faculty

Evoto

Warren Hatch 

Former Superforecaster and Wall Street executive with a PhD from Oxford

Eva Chen

Eva Chen 

Award-winning expert in decision science and behavioral economics

What This Program Offers

A transformative leadership development experience from The Kingbridge Centre in partnership with Good Judgment Inc.

Two days and two nights at the Kingbridge Centre.
An immersive mix of instruction, hands-on practice, and live calibration tied to your real decision.
Fireside chat and working dinner to build shared context and psychological safety.
Multi-level forecasting training, applied immediately to a current high-stakes business problem you bring with you.
Cross-functional teams practice together, strengthen shared mental models, and improve group decisions.
A purpose-designed leadership campus that supports focus, reflection, and collaboration
For complex, enterprise-wide challenges, we offer a five-day, four-night intensive. This extended format adds deeper diagnostic work, systemic scenario planning, broader stakeholder engagement, strategic response simulations, and curated sessions with Superforecasters or industry experts

What You Will Learn

•Probabilistic thinking and setting clear decision thresholds
•Precise question writing to cut ambiguity
•Cognitive bias mitigation and practical debiasing techniques
•Combining diverse views without groupthink
•Tracking judgments and learning from feedback

Who Should Attend

•Board members
•C-suite and senior leaders
•Cross-functional teams tasked with solving complex organization-wide challenges

Measure Impact

Recent workshop cohorts improved individual forecasting accuracy by about 29% on average (up to 47%) and group accuracy by about 25%. They were up to 58% more accurate than untrained peers. Results are tracked so you can measure progress over time.

Faculty

Co-founded by Professor Tetlock from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, Good Judgment Inc grew out of a four-year, multi-million research tournament run by the US government to identify the best methodologies in forecasting. Today, Good Judgment works with governments, Fortune 500 firms, and top universities including Harvard Kennedy School.

Evoto

Warren Hatch 

Superforecaster and CEO

Phil Tetlock

Philip Tetlock

Co-Founder

Eva Chen

Eva Chen 

Chief Scientist

A Campus Designed for deep thinking and transformation

The Kingbridge Experience

Kingbridge is not a traditional venue,it is a purpose-built leadership campus.
• Biophilic design enhances clarity and creativity
• Spaces designed for both collaboration and reflection
• Environment optimized for focus, cognition, and alignment

Testimonials

Rachel Bode
CEO, Association of International Risk Intelligence Professionals

The analysts loved the chance to sit down for a morning and debate problems, scenarios and analytical techniques. Your team was professional, prepared, engaging and great to work with. Everything flowed really nicely.

Workshop Participant

It was helpful to see the clear scientific research underpinning the way we make predictions. The instructors are personable and adaptive, and the interactive activities are great.

Workshop Participant

The workshop provided a great insight into forming predictions and conducting analysis in a manner better than traditional structured analytic techniques taught to students of intelligence.

The Kingbridge Experience

The Kingbridge Centre’s biophilic design of the space is intentionally created to prime the mind for peak learning, deepen engagement, and enhance focus. Participants work through real-time decision challenges using an experiential learning model developed in partnership with Good Judgment Inc. Insights are applied immediately and reinforced through reflection and recalibration. While most leadership development programs focus on content and conversation, few address the physiological and neurocognitive conditions essential for sustained attention, sharp decision-making, and collaborative thinking. To address this gap and make the experience more robust, we have embedded science-backed solutions that prepare both mind and body for peak performance, elevating the entire learning experience.

The Five Pillar Framework

Frequently Asked Questions

Three days and three nights at The Kingbridge Centre. Immersive instruction, hands-on practice, and live calibration on your real decision.

Executive and cross-functional teams. We scope cohort size to your objectives and the complexity of the decision problem.

A specific organizational challenge or decision that matters this quarter. We integrate your live questions into exercises, so insights are immediately relevant and actionable.

Sharper forecasts, reduced bias, clearer decision thresholds. Measured with calibration and scorekeeping.

Yes. We tailor content to your industry and integrate your decision scenarios into exercises. An optional five-day intensive is available for complex mandates. Shorter modular options are also available.

Measurable gains, direct application to live questions, collective-intelligence tools, and access to Superforecasters set this program apart. Teams leave with a common language for uncertainty and a way to keep score on decision quality.

Frequently Asked Questions

Three days and three nights at The Kingbridge Centre. Immersive instruction, hands-on practice, and live calibration on your real decision.

Executive and cross-functional teams. We scope cohort size to your objectives and the complexity of the decision problem.

A specific organizational challenge or decision that matters this quarter. We integrate your live questions into exercises, so insights are immediately relevant and actionable.

Sharper forecasts, reduced bias, clearer decision thresholds. Measured with calibration and scorekeeping.

Yes. We tailor content to your industry and integrate your decision scenarios into exercises. An optional five-day intensive is available for complex mandates. Shorter modular options are also available.

Measurable gains, direct application to live questions, collective-intelligence tools, and access to Superforecasters set this program apart. Teams leave with a common language for uncertainty and a way to keep score on decision quality.

Elevate How Your Organization Thinks and Decides

Explore how Every Decision Is a Forecast can transform your leadership team’s ability to navigate uncertainty, align more effectively, and make better decisions.

Schedule a consultation call
Download the Program flyer

The Future Belongs to Leaders Who Anticipate

Ready to equip your leaders to anticipate change and act with confidence?

Schedule a consultation call to identify how your organization can sharpen decision-making and forecasting skills.

Schedule a consultation call
Download the Program flyer
Two days and two nights at the Kingbridge Centre.
An immersive mix of instruction, hands-on practice, and live calibration tied to your real decision.
Fireside chat and working dinner to build shared context and psychological safety.
Multi-level forecasting training, applied immediately to a current high-stakes business problem you bring with you.
Cross-functional teams practice together, strengthen shared mental models, and improve group decisions.
A purpose-designed leadership campus that supports focus, reflection, and collaboration
For complex, enterprise-wide challenges, we offer a five-day, four-night intensive. This extended format adds deeper diagnostic work, systemic scenario planning, broader stakeholder engagement, strategic response simulations, and curated sessions with Superforecasters or industry experts