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Elevate Your Decision-Making With Superforecasting
Every Decision Is A Forecast
Whether choosing a strategy, assessing risks, or hiring a new person, the decision-maker is constantly under pressure to make the right call. The most successful leaders and organizations don’t go into this process blindly. Better decisions depend on accurate forecasting and the ability to avoid cognitive pitfalls.
Why Superforecasting?
Superforecasting, a concept developed by Philip Tetlock of the University of Pennsylvania and explored in his book Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, demonstrates that forecasting is a skill that can be honed. Through decades of research, Tetlock and his team identified what sets the best forecasters apart: a willingness to update beliefs, a disciplined approach to probability, and an ability to synthesize diverse perspectives. These skills aren’t just for intelligence analysts. They are essential for anyone making high-stakes decisions in business, policy, and beyond.
A Strategic Alliance: The Kingbridge Centre and Good Judgment Inc.
Now, through a partnership between Good Judgment, the official home of Dr. Tetlock’s Superforecasting, and the Kingbridge Centre, organizations can bring these proven forecasting techniques into their decision-making processes. By integrating forecasting methods with an ideal setting for reflection and discussion, this partnership helps leaders and teams sharpen their judgment and improve strategic thinking. Good Judgment’s rigorous multi-level training program, combined with the Kingbridge Centre’s uniquely designed space for deep thinking and collaboration, provides an immersive environment for teams to:
• Make better decisions under uncertainty
• Recognize and mitigate key cognitive biases
• Foster collaboration while avoiding groupthink
Discover Good Judgement Inc.
Co-founded by Professor Philip Tetlock, Good Judgment is the culmination of a four-year, multi-million research tournament run by the US government to identify the best methodologies in forecasting. Tools developed by Professor Tetlock and his Good Judgment Project generated up to an 85% increase in forecasting accuracy while the best forecasters, who became known as Superforecasters, proved 30% more accurate than intelligence community analysts with access to classified information.
Today, Good Judgment continues to work with clients and partners around the globe—from governments to Fortune 500 companies and top-tier universities such as Harvard Kennedy School and Wharton—to push the frontiers of forecasting even further.
Meet The Team That Makes It Happen
Discover the experts behind this powerful learning experience. The faculty members at Good Judgement are thought leaders in decision-making, forecasting and strategic judgement. Their vast knowledge and practical expertise will guide you through each session.
Explore Program Offerings
Level I: Core – Building a Strong Foundation in Decision-Making
This level covers the fundamentals of decision-making under uncertainty, with a focus on key cognitive biases and mitigation techniques as well as team collaboration strategies to improve forecasting accuracy.
This session consists of six 60-minute modules and can be completed in one day of training.
Level II: Advanced – Enhancing Forecasting Accuracy
This level builds on foundational skills, introducing more sophisticated bias mitigation techniques, integrating expertise and AI, and refining question generation for improved forecasting outcomes. This session consists of four modules.
Please note, Level I modules are a prerequisite for this session.
Level III: Elite – Mastering Forecasting Complexity
For those looking to refine their forecasting expertise, this level focuses on leveraging insights from both in-group and out-group perspectives. It teaches modeling uncertainty and ways of effectively communicating probabilistic information to decision-makers.
Please note, some of the Level II modules are required for this session.
Applied Options – Tailored, Hands-On Forecasting for Real-World Challenges
Customizable workshops designed to apply forecasting techniques to specific organizational challenges, public policy debates, and other decision-making scenarios.
You will learn:
• How to apply forecasting methods to real-world decisions in a structured, professional setting.
• Methods for navigating high-stakes disagreements through adversarial collaboration.
• How to engage with subject-matter experts in highly interactive forecasting sessions where everyone’s voice will be heard.
An Experiential Learning Framework for Developing Leadership Capacity
Our in-person leadership development programs, designed in collaboration with Good Judgment, use an experiential learning approach to help participants enhance leadership capacity by tackling real business challenges in real time.
By integrating experiential learning principles into our in-person programs, leaders are better equipped to navigate complex challenges with confidence and agility.
Learning Through Real-World Application
• Participants engage in hands-on forecasting training, applying new insights to pressing business challenges alongside peers and facilitators in a collaborative, in-person setting.
• This immersive approach sharpens decision-making and strengthens practical leadership skills.
• Physical presence also encourages leaders to develop interpersonal skills—reading body language, active listening, and engaging in serendipitous conversations—that are crucial for managing teams and stakeholders but difficult to practice virtually.
Grounded in Cognitive Science & Learning Theory
• Research shows that active engagement—experiencing, applying, and reflecting—drives deeper learning.
• Our programs provide structured opportunities to absorb information, test new approaches, and refine thinking.
Building Confidence & Competence in a Safe Environment
• Leaders practice and refine forecasting skills in a structured, risk-free setting before applying them professionally.
• This iterative learning process strengthens adaptability, decision-making, and leadership effectiveness.
